2nd Batch of Results from Weather@Home 2014 UK Flooding Experiment

Thank you again to everyone who has been running models for us on this experiment. We’re now able to show you the 2nd batch of results, with just over 500 models.

Here is a plot of the second batch of results from the weather@home UK Flooding experiment we’re currently running:

Each dark blue and green dot represents one model that was run on a participant’s computer. If climate change had changed the odds of getting the severe flooding last winter, then we should expect to see a significant gap between the blue and green dots. For more information about how to read this Return Time Plot, please see the Expected Results page.

We’re hoping to eventually get several thousand model runs done, but we thought it would be interesting to plot the results so far, so you can see why we need so many results.

With only 47 model runs (see First Results below), there simply aren’t enough dots to state statistically if there is a difference between the blue and green dots.

Now, with 510, we’re starting to see a better pattern emerge. As you can see in the plot, there isn’t currently any significant gap between the blue and green dots.

This short video shows an animation of the plot, as more and more results are added in:

The lighter green dots represent the individual patterns of sea surface temperature we estimated as the response of the climate system to man-made climate change. The smaller light green dots therefore represent the uncertainty in the human influence. If the blue dots lie within the area covered by the light green dots, then we can’t attribute these results to climate change.

But we need even more results to be able to make a statistical statement about the influence of climate change on the risk of extreme flooding.

We will be posting further results in the next few days, when we should be into the 1000’s of model runs.

So, please help us by signing up and joining in!

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